Risk Evasion is not Risk Management

August 21, 2007

DNA has an article titled ‘Being behind the curve helps Banking Street‘, where it praises the RBI for being conservative, and thus ensuring that Indian banks were not exposed to the subprime contagion:

Bless the conservative Reserve Bank of India too, for its tough regulations on overseas investments have meant Indian banks’ exposure remains limited.

I think this is a wonderful insight, and should not be limited only to banking. It must be applied everywhere.

For starters, everyone should never have sex. This will ensure that nobody is exposed to AIDS.

Also, nobody should ever take the board exams. After all, some people might flunk.

And there should be a newspaper regulator which should stop DNA from hiring business writers. There’s a chance that they’ll hire idiots.


Local Content

August 17, 2007

Why do FM stations play music?

I’m not being facetious here. Indian FM radio stations have been complaining that the royalties they have to pay on music are squeezing their margins and even driving them bankrupt. Not only that, if your value proposition is good/ popular music, you have to compete not only with other FM stations, but with music channels on TV, satellite radio, and CD/ cassette/ MP3 players (which keep getting cheaper every year). How the hell do you make music a USP?

One way to do this ts the Go FM or Radio Indigo way: differentiate yourself and play music which nobody else plays (Western music in their case). Except that Go FM found it couldn’t make any money doing that and moved out of the niche. I sincerely hope Radio Indigo doesn’t go the same way – evenings without Malavika would be intolerable – but let’s not get too optimistic. In the US, niches are large enough or valuable enough to support themed stations – country, jazz, or rock – in India, they don’t seem to be, or at least radio stations can’t figure out how to crack the market.

Extending this, why not differentiate yourself by not playing royalty and fee-based music at all (or substantially less). Ways to do this would include:

  • Play music owned by smaller companies who don’t have enough bargaining power1 to charge significant royalties. This does raise the frightening possibility of FM radio stations dedicated to struggling Bhangra acts from Doaba, or Bhojpuri film music, but hey, there’s probably a market out there.
  • Chuck recorded music altogether. Get local musicians into the studio and let them play live. This will lead to a lot of crap going out over the airwaves, but will also help in the discovery of true gems. It also has immense branding scope. Radio City Bangalore used to do this on Sundays – I don’t know if they still do.
  • Chuck music altogether. Just have people talking. This could be radio drama, or talk radio. Regulations prohibit private stations from doing news, but they can still do interviews and current affairs. And if the subject is city-specific, the audience is matched to the content. MTV is forced to make shows with an all-India appeal, but FM stations can make shows customised to their own, city-sized coverage areas. This is being done in Bangalore – Indigo decided to run Independence Day specials on people who had made a difference – and they interviewed a guy who had volunteered to become a Bangalore traffic warden. It was completely Bangalore-specific, with nothing to do with the rest of India. I loved it. (In fact, it’s what prompted the post.) Finally, there was quality MSM coverage of local issues. And Radio City has been doing similar stuff for ages, Wimpy assures me.

The question is, why aren’t more stations doing this more of the time. Some reasons I can think of are:

  1. Supply side issues for music: playing local musicians requires local musicians to exist in the first place. Even if they exist, setting up a system to find, filter and record them is going to be long and painful.
  2. Supply-side issues for non-music: this is going to be a real problem. Doing radio dramas or current affairs or talk shows means you either have to hire stars or create them, whether it’s drama stars or journalists or presenters. So first you’ve got to fight to find talent – a massive problem in India especially right now – and then you’ve got to fight to prevent TV channels from poaching it.
  3. Demand side issues for music: Gut-feel, this is probably the most major issue. I don’t think India has developed a long tail consumption culture yet. Eardrums2 might all be chasing Himesh Reshammiya rather than the neighbourhood rock band/ Carnatic singer/ school choir. But is this just an issue of bad marketing?
  4. Demand side issues for non-music: Gut feel again, this is probably the most minor issue. Going by the success of TV news channels, as a concept there’s probably enough demand for talk radio or current affairs, especially if it’s localised. The problem is going to be with the level of localisation. In Bangalore or Pune, one city affairs channel should be enough. But Bombay will have different audiences and advertisers for town, for the western suburbs, for the central suburbs, and for Navi Mumbai. Delhi will have similar problems, though perhaps not as extreme. Perhaps this is why stations in Delhi and Mumbai are so homogenuous – chasing 20% of the music listening audience is still going to give you a bigger audience than chasing all the current affairs listeners in Delhi.

To a limited extent, localised non-music content has taken off, even if it’s just small segments like traffic and weather updates. These are low-investment and replicable, though, and I’m waiting for differentiated content to come up.

There are two more posts I can make on this topic now that I’ve started off: one on the regulatory changes that would make localised content spring up faster, and another one on why localised content matters so much. Sadly, my post backlog is massive, and I’m making no promises about when/ if I ever write them.


1: Or as it’s called in Punjabi, aukaat.
2: If the unit of TV viewership is the eyeball, shouldn’t the unit of radio listenership be the eardrum?


The Theory – Practice Gap

March 31, 2007

This is an example of why libertarians get thulped for being impractical:

If betting was legal, and as a punter you could choose from a) an HDFC subsidiary offering betting facilities, b) a Taj Group company and c) some shady outlet like the ones you can choose from now, you’d obviously choose one of the more legit ones. Being public companies, and part of bigger brands, they would be far less prone to fix matches. That would reduce bookie-led match-fixing.

It will work, in theory. Also, in theory, banks and NBFCs will drive loansharks out of business. The problem is that theory requires that there are no barriers to customers. Real life will have barriers in plenty.

Let’s look at the real real world first. Suppose we do get an enlightened government which legalises betting. Even so, the Income Tax Department and the Prevention of Money Laundering Act are going to play spoilsport. The IT Department is going to monitor all transactions made with legitimate bookies. Punters will be required to submit their PAN details with every bet they make.

This is not an issue for a software sarariman who is going to put a thousand rupees down. But if you’re a big-time punter betting ten megarupees of black money then a legitimate bookie is out of bounds for you. The big money will continue to be placed with underworld bookies, and because it’s big money, the underworld will continue to fix matches.

This is where my own inner libertarian pops up and says, bah, get rid of the regulation and the problem is solved. Money being laundered is actually a good thing as it will then find its way into legitimate uses.

Unfortunately, even in an idealised real world with no regulation or monitoring, there will still be barriers to customers, especially if the bookmaker is an HDFC subsidiary that is accountable to shareholders and can’t take too many chances. Just as HDFC won’t give anybody a loan beyond a certain limit, HDFC’s bookmaking subsidiary won’t allow anybody to place a bet beyond a certain limit. The bigtime punters will still be excluded, not by regulation but by the bookmakers’ own risk appetite. And so the biggest bets will still remain underground, and the incentive for the mafia to fix matches will still remain.

Two points before I end this post:

  1. Even so, betting should still be legalised, if only for the benefit of the small ticket punters who’re betting a day’s worth of salary. And once legit bookies are successful enough with small time punters, they’ll be able to create risk management systems robust enough to deal with the big betters.
  2. I’m sure Skimpy will respond to this by saying something to the effect that hedge funds will have enough risk appetite to serve big punters and so I’m worrying needlessly. I actually hope he does.

Pawar Likes Exports

February 9, 2007

“We should be permitted to freely import food, and if the farmer gets a
good price in the international market, he should be allowed to export
well in time. But it should not be a one-way traffic,” the minister
said.

Heh. I wonder how badly Dynamix Dairy was affected when Pawar’s colleagues decided to ban skimmed milk powder exports.


Three Counter Intuitive Corollaries

February 7, 2007

The last post on dowry throws up three corollaries which run contrary to received wisdom. Here they are:

  1. Women from communities which don’t have a tradition of dowry are worse off in the long run. In castes and subcastes with a dowry tradition, the girl and her parents have a financial incentive to delay marriage, or to elope with someone who doesn’t want dowry. But when the desire for social acceptance isn’t counterbalanced by the pain of dowry you’ll have more arranged marriages, at younger ages.
  2. Consumerism is a good thing. This is based on my point about all the stuff you can do with your money if your didn’t give it up as dowry. The next time you meet someone who moans about how dowry demands are increasing because of liberalisation and consumerism running rampant, ask them why it is that only the grooms’ families are consumerist, while all the brides’ families are saintly enough to forgo all the consuming they could do if they kept the dowry for themselves.
  3. Rising dowry demands are a good thing, because the higher the demand, the greater the incentive to say ‘Balls to social acceptance and tradition’. Crude oil at $75 a barrel may have hurt like hell, but it changed consumer behaviour. Hybrids became more popular and SUVs became less popular. Incentives matter.

Next up, I’ll talk about why dowry is a bad thing.


Saving Face and Saving Money

February 6, 2007

Back to dowry. As I mentioned in this post, fifteen megarupees is now considered too low a price for the privilege of getting your daughter married to someone she’s never met. However, there’s evidently no shortage of people willing to cough up the market clearing price.

If you parked twenty megarupees in a fixed deposit, you’d get more than one and a half megarupees a year at current interest rates. But societal taboos and social standing seem to be valued much higher. If you pay some wanker to take your daughter off your hands, you lose money. But if you don’t, you lose face. As a collective society, we seem to put too much of a premium on face.

But I think it’s a waning trend. Here’s why:

  1. Remember the Nisha Sharma case? A few people had made disapproving noises about how she hadn’t walked out because the groom had asked for dowry, but because the groom had asked for too much dowry- ‘unreasonable demands’. They disapproved because they thought that any demand more than zero is unreasonable.
    But I think it’s fantastic. It shows that even if you are indoctrinated to put a value on societal pressures, you don’t put an infinite value on them.1 There is a point at which you’d rather have the money than the respect. And if grooms demand more than that, you’ll tell them to go stick their heads in a pig.
  2. Respect faces competition these days. In the bad old days, when all you could buy with your money was a Premier Padmini and a badly constructed house, the respect of your societal peers is valuable in comparison. Today, though, your money can buy much more. If gaining respect means losing out on a premium flat in Gurgaon, or a foreign education for your other children, or a vacation abroad, you’ll think twice about rushing to buy respect.
  3. The economic rationale is disappearing. If your daughter is supporting you instead of you supporting your daughter, paying somebody else to take her off your hands is a pretty stupid idea.2

So I’m optimistic. Not optimistic enough to think that dowry will vanish in the next twenty years, but enough to say that it’s on a downtrend.

By the way, the series isn’t over yet. Do stick around.

1 I realise that generalising from a sample of one is not sensible. Let’s say that the Nisha Sharma case refutes the assertion that social customs are completely immune to monetary incentives.
2 This point seems to contradict the rest of the post by assuming that marriage and dowry demands are driven by economics rather than cultural inertia. My personal, unverified hypothesis is that dowry had an economic rationale to begin with, acquired the cultural overtones later, and is now driven purely by tradition. However, even if culture forces parents to marry their girl off, economic reality will encourage them to at least push the age of marriage forward.


Cauvery Water Riots

February 5, 2007

This is where I point out how the problem could be solved if we simply had sane pricing for water.


Chicken and Egg

February 3, 2007

Why Indians shop daily instead of going to a supermarket or hypermarket every weekend and stocking up American style:

  1. They’re used to it
  2. Not enough people have cars with which to lug back one week’s worth of provisions
  3. Everyone has domestic servants who they can send shopping at a minutes notice

What this leads to:

  1. Small pack sizes. The biggest pack of milk and juice is a litre.
  2. Arising out of point 1, there’s not much demand for really big refrigerators. If you’re only storing a day’s worth of milk, you don’t need a 500 litre monster.

This is annoying for me, because shopping on weekdays cuts into time which I’d rather spend at the gym or blogging or studying Chinese or whatnot. But because of the consumer behaviour of the rest of the Indian middle class, I can’t buy a five litre milk carton or juice carton which would last me the week. Bah.

Actually, even if they were available, I couldn’t fit them in my refrigerator. That, however, is because me and my flatmate were too cheap to spring for a decent refrigerator, not because of the middle class at large.

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Odyssey are Weakmax

January 22, 2007

When I read that Odyssey had opened a store in Bangalore, I was wildly enthusiastic. I hoped that the competition would make Landmark Bangalore pull up its socks and bring its graphic novel section to the level of the Landmark Bombay store.
But it looks like there’s no chance of that. The book selection at Odyssey is even worse than the one at Crossword Indiranagar. And for this I went all the way to Jayanagar? Feh. I could have got the same selection at that mockery of a bookshop at Bangalore Central.

On the other hand, the graphic novel section at Landmark has improved, though only mildly. It now has Buddha, and Promethea, and a couple of Fables TPBs. And Death: The High Cost of Living. Which makes it very Alanis-Morissette-ironic that Gaurav is couriering it to me from the US.


Farmers Paid More

January 18, 2007

Today’s Business Standard:

Punjab farmers’ incomes are expected to get a big push with the arrival of the corporate sector in retail.
The main factor in this is the demand created by the corporate houses for fresh fruits and vegetables, which will not only inflate farm income but will also help to contain the declining fertility of the soil and the water table in Punjab as the crops other than wheat and rice would become more profitable for the cultivators.

Now the scenario has been changing. Players like Subhiksha have started purchasing directly from the farmers.

Good stuff. And the fact that it happened before farmers there started commiting suicide is even better.