I Spoke Too Soon

January 17, 2007

Three months ago, I blogged about Airtel not coming up with anything new, and wondered if they’d been left behind in the innovation race. Very embarassing, considering all that they’ve been doing the past month.

First up, there’s the Songcatcher service. The technology was invented in Europe a year or two ago, if I recall correctly. At that time, the application being talked about was to identify a song on the radio you liked. The service would identify it and send you an SMS with the names of the song and the artist. Not really a great business model.

But along comes Airtel, and uses it to selll ringback tones, allowing customers to skip all that painful SMSing or navigating through menus. Bam! You’ve got a commercially viable business model, and the technology finally meets the publilc. Awesome. And Airtel is so good at this- looking for existing technology. adapting it to the local environment, and bringing it to market.

Next, there’s this Business Standard report about Airtel tying up with SBI to turn mobile phones into virtual Kisaan Credit Cards. Lovely again. They’ve had a tieup with ICICI bank to implement credit card on/ through mobile for some time now, but that has just been a test project in Mumbai and Delhi. This takes it to the next level. Of course, it would really explode if the RBI regulation that restricts mobiles from being used as debit cards was removed.

And finally, today’s Business Standard article has more on the payments front. Airtel’s entered a global alliance to develop a platform for remittances over mobile phones.

The (mobile) payments business is so exciting these days that it deserves a blogpost to itself. Heck, I’d love to make a presentation on it the next time there’s a BarCamp in South India. But until then, this will have to do.


Indian Animation

January 12, 2007

Every newspaper article or analyst report about the Indian animation industry inevitably makes the following two points:

  1. The cost of production in India is really low
  2. There’s a huge reservoir of traditional stories and mythology that can be tapped for content

To be honest, I’ve resorted to these cliches myself, for my New Product Development term paper. And they’re true. The only problem is that nobody in India seems to be looking beyond the huge reservoir of traditional stories. Nobody’s trying to create original characters. There are no twenty-first century ‘junior detectives’ or funny talking animals. Instead, all we’ve had in the past few years are Hanuman, Tenali Raman, Vikram and Vetaal, the Pandavas, Akbar Birbal, and Son of Alladin.

This is probably because there’s no Indian animator big enough to take risks on creating its own characters. After all even Disney did nothing but rip off the Brothers Grimm for fifty years of animated features. Unfortunately, it also leads to a creative drought where we get the same characters over and over again. Indian animators don’t compete by responding to a Shrek with a Nemo, but by rendering Krishna with 16000 polygons instead of 10000. Sad.


Murphy’s Law in Telemarketing

January 9, 2007

When you actually invite a call, you never get it. I sent requests to the 6677 helpline for a DB credit card (because let’s face it, having a muscular Gult babe as your brand ambassador just works) and Bharti AXA life insurance eight days ago. Deafening silence since then. No telemarketers calling up to find out what sort of insurance plan or credit card I want.

Bizarrely though, Kotak Mahindra called up to ask if I wanted investment and insurance services. Mystifying. Every bugger working in the financial services industry does sell his database to everyone else around, but usually he uses it himself first.


I Told You So

October 16, 2006

The four most unmitigated words in the Englilsh language: ‘I told you so’.

Two months ago:

‘I can think of two ways for Reliance to immediately start pulling in walk-in customers for services… start a line of co-branded credit cards…’

Today:

‘The Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) has tied up with Citibank to launch its first credit card.’

Of course, I do have to swallow some of my words. I also said that the MNC banks didn’t have the reach. But ADAG’s gone ahead with Citi and restricted the launch to Delhi and Mumbai.

It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out. I’m still willing to bet that they’l launch their own cards within the next five years.


Has Airtel Dropped the Innovation Ball?

October 9, 2006

Although I’m a diehard Airtel loyalist- back in my Patiala days, I was a beneficiary of the price war dividend- I criticised them a few months ago for not doing what a tyro like Spice was doing. Now, I’m going to ask if they’ve dropped the innovation ball altogether.

Their last major new VAS was the portfolio tracker they launched ast May. Since then, all they’ve done is expanded the range of smartphones Blackberry is available on and introduced GSM based Fixed Wireless. Considering Blackberry is shortly ending its exclusive tieup with Airtel, and that Reliance and Tata Indicom have had fixed wireless for donkey’s years, that’s not very impressive. Even in pricing, the lifetime prepaid offer was really a reaction to Tata Indicom.

In the meanwhile, Hutch has come up with a stunning funda: Fun Cards, with which you can install ringtones and ringback tones the way you do a prepaid recharge. That’s a customer delighting product for sure- just buy and scratch a card, instead of going through a long list, or navigating IVRS menus, or paying for premium SMSs.

You could argue about whether the product actually makes business sense. Hutch has been facing a retailer boycott since it slashed retailer margins on prepaid recharge cards. Fun card margins are probably higher, but there’s no guarantee that they won’t erode either, or that this will mollify pissed-off retailers who get most existing business through recharges. Not only that, if Hutch miscalculates the popularity of a particular Fun Card, it’s got a lot of dead inventory sitting in it’s supply chain- not really a problem when your distribution model for ringtones is purely electronic.

Of course, the possible weakness of Fun Cards as a product doesn’t justify Airtel failing to innovate anywhere else.


The Risk Industry

October 7, 2006

Three months ago, I pointed out that telecom is a bad poster child for reform because it has an unfair advantage- the network effect. I wrote about how retail is a better poster child, and also sidetracked into services retailing, but left one question unanswered: is there another industry which could benefit as much from the network effect as telecom has? Well, it’s time to answer that question.

The answer is: Yes. The financial services industry (which is actually several industries together: banking, insurance, wealth management, brokerage, capital markets, consumer lending, project finance, and probably half a dozen more).

Financial services benefit from the network effect because the fundamental product that all these sectors deal with is not equity shares, or bonds, or currency. It’s not even money. It’s risk. And every person plugged into the organised finance system is a producer and a consumer of risk.

This is similar to how the telecom industry’s fundamental product isn’t phone calls or SMSs or IP packets, but information. And everybody plugged into a telecom network produces and consumes information. The important thing is that they trade it with each other, not with the phone company- which is why the network effect kicks in.

Similarly, in the financial system, the important thing is not that a particular company takes on risk. The important thing is that all customers produce some sort of risk, which they sell to some financial intermediary- whether a bank, an insurance company, or to investors directly- which then repackages or restructures it, and sells it back to other customers. The more consumers of financial products there are, the more valuable the financial system is.

Of course, there are complications which the telecom sector doesn’t face. A voice call or an SMS goes through pretty much as it is, intermediated only by machines, but risk has to be broken down into its components and repackaged by human beings before you can sell it on further. This means that there’s more intermediation, and less transparency between intermediaries. Transaction costs are higher. But the model is the same.

What all this means is that the Indian financial services industry could take off as fast as the Indian telecom industry. It would have to overcome a bunch of hurdles first: regulatory, technological, environmental, and organisational- but the potential is there.

(Disclosure: I work in the financial services industry myself, so I may not be entirely objective.)


The Other Retail Story

August 8, 2006

My last long post was on retail as a barometer of reform. On the subject of retail, Neelakantan also has some very good posts up (here, here, here, and here), most of which deal with Reliance Retail.

All of these posts deal with the retailing of physical merchandise. But there’s another retail story brewing in services, and it’s slipping under the radar as far as I can see. Remarkably enough, the company on the leading edge of this retail story is the other Reliance: Anil Ambani’s group.

Reliance-ADAG runs the Reliance WebWorld cybercafe chain. However, WebWorld goes beyond being an ordinary cybercafe like a Sify IWay or an independent outfit. The cybercafe is only where it begins. Webworld is much more than that; it’s a platform for cross-selling other services and goods, including:

  1. Reliance phones
  2. Kingisher Airlines and Air Deccan tickets
  3. Reliance Insurance
  4. Reliance Mutual Funds
  5. (some minor merchandise like mugs and T-shirts, which are shipped rather than purchased on the spot- or you bring your own T-shirt).

The insurance and mutual funds started recently. What you need to look at is the profile of what they’re selling: except for the phones, these are all things where they need to carry no physical inventory.

Can this actually work, though? Converting a cybercafe chain into a profitable retail platform will depend on a bunch of stuff, including:

  • Converting single-service customers to cross-sell customers. The idea of using existing infrastructure and real-estate space to sell intangible, high-margin services os attractive, but will it actually happen? Cross-sell might be the holy grail, but if my employer’s experience is anything to go by, it’s bloody hard to do. Can you really convince someone who’s come by only to pay a phone bill or check his mail to buy mutual funds or insurance? It’s hard enough convincing someone who’s come by to check his bank balance.
  • Putting the marketing into place. I might see WebWorld as a retail opportunity, but are Amar, Akbar and Anthony going to think of WebWorld when they want to buy financial products? That needs branding and advertising, and more importantly, capability.
  • Getting the skilled people. You need trained insurance agents and investment advisors in each WebWorld if you want to cross-sell. Certification is the easy part. Training them to be effective salespeople is going to be much tougher.
  • Expanding the product range. To start attracting more walk-in customers and brand itself as a service retailer, WebWorld would have to sell a whole lot more than what they’re doing now. Off the top of my head, I can think of hotel and vacation bookings, job recruitment services (not for engineers and MBAs but for private tutors and maids), small money transfers (which would bring them into direct competition with postal money orders- I am not sure about whether financial regulations would actually permit this), and booking one time medium-ticket services, like movie tickets or A/C call-taxis.

I can think of two-ways for Reliance to immediately start pulling in more walk-in customers for stuff beyond mail checking and phone bill paying.

  1. First, move past paying only Reliance phone bills at WebWorld. Pull in customers by letting them pay any and all bills- rival telecom operators, utilities, personal loan instalments, and so forth. This can be done easily, really, if Reliance cuts a deal with EasyBill, which has taken the kirana distribution route till now. In fact, EasyBill could become a strategic acquisition target just for its back-end.
  2. Start a line of co-branded credit cards, or enter the credit card business themselves. I’m a little skeptical of whether co-branding would work. Who would do it? The PSU banks won’t, ICICI is in direct competition with Reliance for investments and insurance, and the MNC banks don’t have the reach. HDFC could do it, though, or perhaps Reliance could bypass banks entirely and do a tie-up with Amex.
    Once they have customers with established credit track records walking in to pay their credit card bills, their base of prospects for investments sales suddenly becomes a whole lot bigger.

Falstaffian Footnotes:

  1. I realised while writing this that the petrol retailers could employ the same strategy. WebWorlds have a better retail ambience though (IMO of course). I’d love to see this backed up by some figures on how many footfalls the petrol pump convenience stores get, and how that compares to similarly sized kiranas in residential areas. Or what the comparative sales are for that matter.
  2. Intuitively, I can see a big hole in the price range of WebWorld products. Surfing or gaming would have ticket sizes of R. 100-Rs. 500 per transaction, while insurance premiums usually start at Rs. 5000. Mutual funds SIPs can go as low as Rs. 1000 a month, but the effective entry level is usually Rs. 2500. Buying airtickets would again be at least Rs. 5000 per transaction. That means WebWorld’s regular customers are small-ticket spenders, to whom they’re trying to sell much bigger-ticket services. It can address the gap by bringing in a greater range of small-ticket cross-sell services- like employment registration.
  3. I know my next big post was supposed to be about what industry can benefit from network effects as much as telecom. Trust me, this post is a bridge to that.

Customisable Ringback Tones

August 5, 2006

Caller ringback tones are not being utilised to their greatest possible extent. Their true value will be unlocked only when they become customisable.

Right now, everyone who calls you hears there same ringback tone. For unmitigated fun, the tone would change depending on who was calling.

Smita would call Ravi, for example and hear ‘Humein Tumse Pyaar Kitna’. But when Scahin calls Ravi he would hear ‘Yeh Dosti Hum Nahin Todenge’. Of course, if Ravi’s mother called she would get to hear ‘Om Jai Jagdish Hare’.

When Ravi called Smita back, he would hear ‘Bhaiyya more’, but that’s part of life, no?


The Barometer of Reform

July 25, 2006

Back in the days when I had internet access, I had picked nits with Gaurav over the suitability of telecom as a poster child for reform. I had said that telecom benefitted so much from network effects that it wasn’t fair to attribute the entire success of the telecom sector to reform- though of course the success wouldn’t have happened if reform hadn’t been there in the first place.

I also promised two follow-up posts. This is the first one, and talks about which industry is a suitable poster child for reform.

That industry is organised retailing- the Big Bazaars, Food Worlds, Planet Ms and Shoppers’ Stops. And shortly Reliance Retail, of course.

Organised retail is a true barometer of reform because it’s the last link in the supply chain. So, no matter which sector of the economy actually gets reformed, the impact will show up in a retailer’s profits- through increased sales, better operational efficiencies, or both.

Let me repeat that: there is no economic reform which will not benefit organised retail in some way or the other.

Labour and pension reform? Allows retail outlets to work longer hours attract more customers, and reduces the risks associated with permanent employees. And reduces the price of merchandise too, if you see the benefits that are accruing further back in the supply chain.

Real Estate reform? It lets retailers build large-format stores, and increase their economies of scale and efficiency. It also frees up land use, making land cheaper and improving profitability.

Agricultural reform? It’s already happening. Reliance Retail isn’t just building grocery stores, it’s also buying produce markets. The scale of the new market reduces waste, gets the farmer a decent price, and brings down costs. The farmer’s happy,Reliance is happy, and the consumer’s happy. It’s win-win for everyone except the middleman.

Tax reform? Once the whole sclerotic system of octroi and inter-state sales tax and excise variations is removed, the supply chain becomes much more efficient. Much less pain for the retailer.

Financial reform- brings down the cost of money. Improves capital efficiency and puts more money in consumers’ wallets. Win-win.

The next time I have proper internet access, I’ll post about what other industries could benefit from network effects the way telecom has. Also, a guest blogger may shortly be posting more specific details about how octroi and the current state of agri-markets are screwing up life for retailers.


How I would use e-books

July 25, 2006

I prefer reading books the old fashioned way. I like to turn pages, and of course you can carry a book to the bogs or to bed. You can put it down when you’ve just read something impressive enough to make you gasp and pause before you start reading again.

Unfortunately, old fashioned books are bulky. This is really a problem for me, considering the number of books I own (or rather, my family owns) must be well over three thousand. You can’t haul the entire lot to Bangalore or Bombay every time you shift. This is particularly annoying when you want to look up a specific quote and the book is fifteen hundred kilometres away.

What would be awesome would be a password which comes with every paper book that you could use to download a digital copy (which you could then save with your own password). You could keep that digital copy on a pen drive, and look up the wuote whenever you needed it- and the best part is that the digital text is searchable. Alternately, if you bought books online from Amazon, every book you bought would be recorded, and you could just log on and search inside the book or read it online for free.

There could be a business plan in this.